Estimating the proportion of Archey’s frogs in the Wharekirauponga mine vibration footprint 19 Figure 9. Changes in the extent of areas affected by different vibration intensity levels 2023–2036. Table 11. Areas (ha) of the three catchments affected by predicted vibration levels 2023–2036. Catchment Predicted Vibration Levels (mm sec-1) Year ≥2 4–6 6–8 8–10 10–15 15–20 ≥20 Mataura 2023 33.9 10.6 5.51 3.40 2.26 1.16 0.84 2024 27.8 10.1 5.72 3.81 2.65 1.37 0.87 Waiharakeke 2025 0.02 2026 12.3 Wharekirauponga 2026 14.2 2027 105.1 43.1 21.6 9.63 5.86 2.73 1.91 2028 116.8 50.2 29.3 16.1 10.1 3.00 0.02 2029 145.0 69.2 43.7 27.6 16.5 2.33 2030 248.0 108.7 50.7 26.7 16.3 1.52 2031 235.8 100.4 56.1 24.6 11.8 2032 281.7 142.7 78.5 40.5 21.9 1.57 2033 240.3 107.7 50.8 26.0 15.6 1.33 2034 153.1 56.3 22.5 6.61 3.20 2035 130.9 40.9 3.18 2036 79.7 20.2 2.95 Table 12. Areas of habitat and numbers of Archey’s frogs in the vibration footprint affected by different vibration levels. Vibration (mm sec-1) Area (ha) N. Frogs SE (CI95%) % Affected ≥2<4 152.05 139,955 ±21,557 (97,704 – 180,257) 48.3% ≥4<6 53.24 49,001 ±7,547 (34,208 – 63,112) 16.9% ≥6<8 38.44 35,379 ±5,449 (24,698 – 45,567) 12.2% ≥8<10 22.72 20,916 ±3,222 (14,602 – 26,940) 7.2% ≥10<15 38.04 35,011 ±5,393 (24,442 – 45,093) 12.1% ≥15<20 8.53 7,847 ±1,209 (5,478 – 10,107) 2.7% ≥20 1.93 1,777 ±274 (1,240 – 2,288) 0.6% All 314.94 289,887 ±44,650 (202,373 – 373,364) Hotham’s (2019)[5] capture-recapture study on the effect of habitat disturbance on Archey’s frogs included twenty-four 10x10 m plots spread across the ≥2 mm sec-1 vibration footprint (Figure 10a). Re-analysis of capture-recapture data from these plots gives a density estimate of 920.45 frogs ha-1 (SE ±142) in the ≥2 mm sec-1 vibration footprint (Table 6).
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