Stantec // Oceana Gold NZ Ltd // Waihi North Project Transportation Assessment 13 The historical AADT counts for SH2 have been used to forecast future growth and the 15-year trend line is shown in Figure 19. As noted for SH25, a 15-year analysis period has been used to avoid the relative volatility of growth rates derived from a small number of data points with cognisance to the long period to be forecast (also 15 years into the future). i.e., the historical analysis period being commensurate with the forecast period. The analysis period incorporates several economic cycles, and it is likely that the next 15-year period will also include at least one complete cycle (a 7-year period is typically considered the length of an economic cycle). Figure 19 shows the expected SH2 growth based on a linear regression model which yields an expected long-term growth rate of 1.6% of the base count year (2019) traffic flows. Figure 19: SH2 15-year linear growth trend 2004-2019 2.10.7 State Highway Seasonal Adjustments A Waka Kotahi telemetry count site which provides a continuous traffic count throughout the year is located on SH2 approximately 2.8 km west of Waihi (site 00200091). Data from this site has been extracted and used to identify seasonal traffic patterns in the area to enable adjustment of the single week counts described above . The SH2 daily traffic profile over the latest available full year (2019) is depicted in Figure 20 showing the peak summer periods4. Figure 20 clearly shows the highway is influenced by public holidays with peak traffic flows focussed on the holiday periods including long weekends (Auckland Anniversary, Easter, Queens Birthday and Labour weekend) and the Christmas/ New Year break. An 85th percentile ADT has been derived from the telemetry data. The 85th percentile weekday ADT volume during this period was 10,981 in comparison to the AADT of 9,106. A seasonal adjustment factor has been assessed for each corresponding day of the recorded peak hourly traffic from each of the single week count data for SH25 and SH2 in comparison to the 85th percentile value. For example, the resultant 85th percentile Friday evening peak hour flow factor for SH25 is 0.89 which demonstrates that the January data is higher than the 85th percentile for the year. Similarly, the 85th percentile Friday evening peak hour flow factor for SH2 is 1.1 which demonstrates that the September data is around 91 % of the 85th percentile as would be expected. 4 SH2 “increasing” direction is Southbound and conversely “decreasing” direction is northbound 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 AADT Year SH2 Site 00200095 AADT 15-Year Growth Rate
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